Game number 3

The score (after 2 games) is: Rida Hassan 1, Johan Segers 1 (match to 9 points)

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Match Information

Date	januari 04, 2009
Event	5th Backgammon Masters
Round	8
Place	Antwerp, Belgium
Annotator	Johan Segers
Comment	The 2009 Masters tournament took place in Antwerp on 3 - 4 January. The tournament format was 9 rounds Swiss, with matches being played to 9 points and timed with electronic clocks (Bronstein system, 15 minutes for the match plus 15 seconds per move). The following analysis is performed with the help of GNU Backgammon at 3-ply search depth, setting "grandmaster". In cases of doubt, roll-outs have been done.

Move number 1: Rida Hassan to play 14

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 167, Johan Segers 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIAwARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/23 13/9

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	24/23 13/9	49,86%
			49,1 14,1 0,5 - 50,9 13,8 0,5
	2	3	24/23 24/20	49,66% ( -0,20%)
			48,6 12,3 0,5 - 51,4 13,6 0,5
	3	2	13/9 6/5	49,99% ( 0,13%)
			50,1 14,4 0,6 - 49,9 14,5 0,8
	4	2	13/8	49,94% ( 0,08%)
			49,7 13,8 0,6 - 50,3 14,0 0,5
	5	2	24/20 6/5	49,84% ( -0,01%)
			49,7 12,9 0,6 - 50,3 14,1 0,6

Move number 2: Johan Segers to play 63

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 162, Johan Segers 167
Position ID: 4HPhASjgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkvARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 24/15

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	24/15	48,90%
			46,1 10,4 0,3 - 53,9 16,3 0,5
	2	3	24/18 13/10	48,87% ( -0,03%)
			45,8 11,7 0,4 - 54,2 17,2 0,7
	3	2	24/21 8/2*	49,14% ( 0,23%)
			46,6 12,3 0,5 - 53,4 15,7 0,6
	4	2	24/21 13/7	48,79% ( -0,11%)
			45,1 11,6 0,4 - 54,9 16,3 0,6
	5	2	24/21 24/18	48,75% ( -0,15%)
			45,9 10,9 0,5 - 54,1 18,1 0,5

Move number 3: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 162, Johan Segers 158
Position ID: 4HPwCSDgc+EBKA Match ID: MIEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 23/22 6/1*

Alert: doubtful move (-0,388%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	23/22 13/8	49,31%
			46,2 12,9 0,3 - 53,8 13,1 0,5
	2	3	23/18 9/8	49,14% ( -0,17%)
			46,0 10,8 0,3 - 54,0 12,8 0,4
•	3	3	23/22 6/1*	48,92% ( -0,39%)
			44,5 12,7 0,3 - 55,5 14,2 0,6
	4	2	13/8 9/8	49,47% ( 0,16%)
			47,0 12,2 0,3 - 53,0 12,3 0,3
	5	2	13/8 6/5	49,42% ( 0,10%)
			47,0 13,2 0,4 - 53,0 13,8 0,6

Annotation

I see little reason for the loose hit on the ace-point. Getting hit back is bad, and otherwise White will have to cover the blot, burying two chequers in the process.

Sometimes the loose hit on the ace-point is played to prevent the opponent from carrying out a threat on the other side of the board: see Bill Robertie's 2007 article The Tempo Hit.

Move number 4: Johan Segers to play 65

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 156, Johan Segers 159
Position ID: wXPhASTgc/AJQA Match ID: cAk3ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/20 15/9

Alert: doubtful move (-0,231%)

Ply

Move

MWC

bar/14

50,45%

52,0	11,2	1,1	-	48,0	13,3	0,6	50,15%	50,45%
0,5	0,4	0,5	-	0,5	0,5	0,8	0,09%	0,23%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867842868 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

bar/20 15/9

50,22% ( -0,23%)

50,9	13,5	0,8	-	49,1	14,8	0,4	50,01%	50,22%
0,7	0,7	0,1	-	0,7	0,4	0,1	0,10%	0,32%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867842868 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

bar/20 13/7

49,31% ( -1,14%)

48,2 12,3 0,5 - 51,8 17,8 0,7

bar/20 8/2

48,79% ( -1,66%)

46,1 11,6 0,5 - 53,9 19,2 0,7

Annotation

Moving away from the gun, 20/14, is more prudent.

Move number 5: Rida Hassan to play 21

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 156, Johan Segers 148
Position ID: 4HPhAwLBc+EBJA Match ID: MAElARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/22 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	24/22 6/5*	48,09%
			41,2 10,8 0,3 - 58,8 15,4 0,6
	2	3	24/22 9/8	48,05% ( -0,03%)
			39,2 8,5 0,1 - 60,8 9,4 0,2
	3	2	9/7 8/7	48,10% ( 0,01%)
			40,8 9,7 0,2 - 59,2 13,9 0,4
	4	2	13/11 6/5*	48,02% ( -0,06%)
			42,5 11,6 0,3 - 57,5 19,5 1,4
	5	2	22/20 6/5*	48,01% ( -0,07%)
			42,2 10,9 0,3 - 57,8 18,3 1,2

Annotation

I would not be able to resist the temptation of the loose hit either. The alternatives are too passive.

Move number 6: Johan Segers to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 153, Johan Segers 153
Position ID: oXPhAQzgc+EDQA Match ID: cIkyARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/20*/16*

Alert: lucky roll! (+2,796%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/20/16	54,54%
			69,2 23,5 1,0 - 30,8 6,1 0,1
	2	0	bar/20* 13/9	53,56% ( -0,97%)
			67,2 16,9 0,5 - 32,8 8,0 0,1
	3	0	bar/16*	52,13% ( -2,41%)
			61,1 13,2 0,4 - 38,9 10,0 0,2
	4	0	bar/20* 9/5	51,89% ( -2,64%)
			59,0 15,9 0,6 - 41,0 11,1 0,3
	5	0	bar/20* 6/2	51,59% ( -2,95%)
			57,6 16,1 0,7 - 42,4 12,2 0,4

Move number 7: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 189, Johan Segers 144
Position ID: 4HPhIwDBOXgAYw Match ID: MIEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/24 bar/20

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/24 bar/20	46,24%
			35,1 7,4 0,1 - 64,9 20,6 0,8

Move number 8: Johan Segers to play 64

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 183, Johan Segers 144
Position ID: wTl4QCbgc+EjAA Match ID: cAkzARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 16/10 13/9

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

52,74%

(Money: +0,482)

Cubeful equities:

No double

54,50%

Double, pass

55,61%

1,10%

Double, take

54,11%

-0,39%

Proper cube action:

No double, take (26,2%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	66,6	21,0	0,7	-	33,4	6,5	0,2	52,74%	54,50%
Standard error	0,9	0,8	1,4	-	0,9	0,6	0,2	0,13%	0,47%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	65,9	21,3	0,7	-	34,1	6,6	0,2	55,61%	54,11%
Standard error	1,0	0,9	1,1	-	1,0	0,6	0,2	0,30%	0,51%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

72 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867628824 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	16/10 13/9	54,47%
			67,9 18,5 0,7 - 32,1 6,2 0,1
	2	2	13/9 13/7	53,73% ( -0,74%)
			65,2 19,2 0,8 - 34,8 7,9 0,1
	3	2	16/10 9/5*	53,45% ( -1,02%)
			64,0 20,3 1,1 - 36,0 8,1 0,2
	4	0	13/9 8/2	53,09% ( -1,38%)
			63,8 19,1 0,8 - 36,2 9,1 0,2
	5	0	16/6	52,99% ( -1,48%)
			63,1 18,2 0,7 - 36,9 8,0 0,1

Annotation

Interestingly, at 3-ply, GNU Backgammon already thought this to be a double for Black.

Move number 9: Rida Hassan to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 183, Johan Segers 134
Position ID: 4HOLBwDBOXhAJg Match ID: MIEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 20/15*/11

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	20/15*/11	46,26%
			35,1 8,0 0,1 - 64,9 20,2 0,9
	2	3	24/15*	45,81% ( -0,45%)
			33,7 7,0 0,1 - 66,3 20,3 0,8
	3	2	20/15* 13/9	46,80% ( 0,53%)
			38,0 8,4 0,1 - 62,0 21,4 1,2
	4	2	24/20 13/8	46,25% ( -0,01%)
			33,0 5,6 0,0 - 67,0 13,8 0,2
	5	2	20/15* 8/4	46,18% ( -0,08%)
			36,6 7,8 0,1 - 63,4 23,9 1,5

Move number 10: Johan Segers to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 174, Johan Segers 149
Position ID: wTnyACbgc8MDQA Match ID: cIkyARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/20 13/9

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		52,47%	(Money: +0,428)
	64,9 20,2 0,9 - 35,1 8,0 0,1
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	53,74%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	1,87%
3.	Double, take	53,67%	-0,07%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3,4%)

Alert: bad move (-0,543%)

Ply

Move

MWC

bar/21 13/8

53,36%

64,2	18,0	0,7	-	35,8	8,3	1,4	52,17%	53,36%
0,6	0,6	0,1	-	0,6	0,4	0,7	0,09%	0,26%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867842868 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

bar/20 13/9

52,82% ( -0,54%)

63,0	17,8	0,8	-	37,0	9,0	0,2	52,00%	52,82%
0,7	1,0	0,2	-	0,7	0,5	0,2	0,12%	0,34%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867842868 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

bar/21 6/1*

53,57% ( 0,21%)

65,0 18,7 0,7 - 35,0 8,7 0,2

bar/16

53,56% ( 0,21%)

65,6 17,0 0,6 - 34,4 8,2 0,1

bar/20 6/2

52,56% ( -0,80%)

61,4 18,5 0,8 - 38,6 10,9 0,2

Annotation

Black chooses the move which gives him the most flexibility up front, placing spares on all points. He does not fear the gun pointed at him on White's 5-point, for White has a few bullets only and a blot on the ace-point. Still, Black should have been more careful and play bar/21 13/9 instead.

Move number 11: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 174, Johan Segers 140
Position ID: 4HOHAwLBOfIAJg Match ID: MIEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 11/5*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	13/8 6/5*	45,44%
			33,7 7,4 0,1 - 66,3 23,2 1,4
•	2	3	11/5*	45,35% ( -0,10%)
			32,9 7,2 0,1 - 67,1 22,1 1,1
	3	0	24/23 11/6	45,44% ( -0,01%)
			30,6 6,2 0,0 - 69,4 15,6 0,3
	4	0	13/8 11/10	45,42% ( -0,02%)
			31,7 6,6 0,1 - 68,3 18,5 0,6
	5	0	13/7	45,36% ( -0,09%)
			32,5 6,9 0,1 - 67,5 21,1 0,9

Annotation

What else? With 3 chequers back, White is likely to end up in some deep holding game or even a back game. Covering the ace-point now would compromise White's chances to trap a Black chequer he might hit in a later stage. White actually hopes that Black will hit his ace-point blot, for then he will be able to recirculate it.

Move number 12: Johan Segers to play 32

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 168, Johan Segers 145
Position ID: oXPwACbgc4cDQA Match ID: cIkpARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/20*

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

52,57%

(Money: +0,441)

Cubeful equities:

No double

53,99%

Double, pass

55,61%

1,61%

Double, take

53,58%

-0,41%

Proper cube action:

No double, take (20,2%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	64,7	20,6	1,0	-	35,3	6,4	0,3	52,57%	53,99%
Standard error	0,8	0,6	0,1	-	0,8	0,3	0,2	0,12%	0,33%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	64,5	20,3	0,8	-	35,5	6,8	0,3	55,18%	53,58%
Standard error	0,8	0,8	0,2	-	0,8	0,3	0,2	0,29%	0,37%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867842868 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/20*	54,59%
			69,4 23,7 1,0 - 30,6 6,2 0,1
	2	0	bar/22 13/11	53,03% ( -1,56%)
			64,2 18,2 0,7 - 35,8 9,8 0,2
	3	0	bar/23 13/10	52,73% ( -1,86%)
			62,6 18,1 0,7 - 37,4 10,1 0,2
	4	0	bar/22 8/6	52,69% ( -1,90%)
			62,9 17,0 0,5 - 37,1 10,2 0,1
	5	0	bar/23 9/6	52,50% ( -2,09%)
			61,9 16,7 0,5 - 38,1 10,4 0,1

Move number 13: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 188, Johan Segers 140
Position ID: 4HOHAwLBOXgAUw Match ID: MIEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/20 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/20 6/5*	45,92%
			37,0 6,5 0,1 - 63,0 26,4 1,5
	2	0	bar/20 24/23	44,86% ( -1,07%)
			32,0 6,1 0,1 - 68,0 23,3 0,8
	3	0	bar/24 13/8	44,81% ( -1,11%)
			32,0 6,3 0,1 - 68,0 23,2 1,4
	4	0	bar/20 8/7	44,76% ( -1,16%)
			33,0 6,4 0,1 - 67,0 26,4 1,4
	5	0	bar/24 8/3	44,56% ( -1,37%)
			31,7 6,3 0,1 - 68,3 24,4 1,8

Move number 14: Johan Segers to play 61

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 182, Johan Segers 145
Position ID: oTl4QCbgc4cDQA Match ID: cAknARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/24*/18

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

52,49%

(Money: +0,424)

Cubeful equities:

No double

53,28%

Double, pass

55,61%

2,32%

Double, take

53,08%

-0,20%

Proper cube action:

No double, take (7,9%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	61,1	25,5	2,5	-	38,9	7,3	0,4	52,49%	53,28%
Standard error	0,9	0,8	0,6	-	0,9	0,5	0,2	0,17%	0,47%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	60,2	26,6	2,9	-	39,8	7,7	0,4	55,17%	53,08%
Standard error	1,0	1,0	0,7	-	1,0	0,7	0,1	0,39%	0,53%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/24*/18	51,92%
			55,0 22,6 1,4 - 45,0 8,6 0,1
	2	3	bar/24* 13/7	51,67% ( -0,25%)
			52,8 24,3 1,5 - 47,2 8,7 0,2
	3	2	bar/24* 8/2	52,83% ( 0,91%)
			58,1 25,8 1,7 - 41,9 7,9 0,2

Move number 15: Rida Hassan to play 43

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 206, Johan Segers 138
Position ID: 4HOHgwDQHDwgUw Match ID: MAEuARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/21 24/21

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	bar/22 24/20	47,12%
			39,6 5,9 0,1 - 60,4 20,7 0,6
•	2	3	bar/21 24/21	46,93% ( -0,19%)
			40,2 6,5 0,1 - 59,8 24,2 1,1
	3	2	bar/21 8/5	47,58% ( 0,46%)
			43,1 8,2 0,1 - 56,9 24,0 1,4
	4	0	bar/21 13/10	46,54% ( -0,58%)
			40,3 7,2 0,1 - 59,7 29,1 2,8
	5	0	bar/22 13/9	46,33% ( -0,78%)
			39,3 7,3 0,1 - 60,7 28,8 2,4

Annotation

Making the 5-point anchor, bar/22 24/20, has the advantage that it becomes more difficult for Black to prime White.

Move number 16: Johan Segers to play 53

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 199, Johan Segers 138
Position ID: 0Bw8oA3gc4eDAA Match ID: cIkuARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 13/5*

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		52,25%	(Money: +0,382)
	59,8 24,2 1,1 - 40,2 6,5 0,1
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	53,07%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	2,53%
3.	Double, take	52,83%	-0,24%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (8,6%)

Ply

Move

MWC

18/13 8/5*

51,75%

53,3	24,1	0,9	-	46,7	8,8	0,4	51,32%	51,75%
0,9	0,8	0,3	-	0,9	0,6	0,1	0,14%	0,35%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

13/5*

51,60% ( -0,15%)

51,7	24,1	1,2	-	48,3	9,1	0,3	51,13%	51,60%
0,9	0,8	0,2	-	0,9	0,6	0,1	0,16%	0,35%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

18/10

52,52% ( 0,76%)

58,7 21,4 0,9 - 41,3 7,2 0,1

18/15 13/8

52,31% ( 0,55%)

57,3 22,3 0,9 - 42,7 7,6 0,1

8/5* 6/1

52,21% ( 0,45%)

57,1 23,3 1,1 - 42,9 9,6 0,2

Annotation

Black will need his 5-point eventually and now seems like a perfect time to fight for it. He would not mind being hit back, for White is no position at all to do any harm whatsoever.

Move number 17: Rida Hassan to play 32

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 204, Johan Segers 130
Position ID: 0OcOgwDQHDzARg Match ID: MIEpARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/20*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	bar/20*	48,72%
			47,8 9,7 0,2 - 52,2 22,0 1,2
	2	2	bar/23 8/5	48,30% ( -0,42%)
			46,2 8,2 0,1 - 53,8 22,7 0,9
	3	2	bar/23 13/10	48,13% ( -0,59%)
			46,6 8,1 0,1 - 53,4 25,8 1,5
	4	0	bar/22 13/11	47,83% ( -0,89%)
			44,5 7,6 0,1 - 55,5 24,5 1,3
	5	0	bar/22 8/6	47,63% ( -1,09%)
			42,5 7,7 0,1 - 57,5 22,9 0,9

Move number 18: Johan Segers to play 66

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 199, Johan Segers 150
Position ID: 0Bw8oA3gc4dBQA Match ID: cAk7ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers cannot move

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		52,24%	(Money: +0,380)
	59,3 25,7 1,3 - 40,7 7,5 0,1
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	53,10%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	2,50%
3.	Double, take	52,78%	-0,32%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (11,3%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
			Cannot move

Move number 19: Rida Hassan to play 42

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 199, Johan Segers 150
Position ID: 4HOHQUDQHDygDQ Match ID: MAEqARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 13/7*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	13/7*	49,38%
			49,9 11,2 0,3 - 50,1 19,6 0,9
	2	2	20/14	48,98% ( -0,39%)
			48,5 10,2 0,2 - 51,5 20,7 1,1
	3	2	22/20 22/18	48,96% ( -0,42%)
			47,6 9,4 0,2 - 52,4 18,3 0,6
	4	2	22/20 13/9	48,89% ( -0,49%)
			47,9 9,9 0,3 - 52,1 20,5 0,8
	5	2	22/20 8/4	48,73% ( -0,65%)
			47,8 9,4 0,2 - 52,2 22,0 1,0

Move number 20: Johan Segers to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 193, Johan Segers 157
Position ID: 0Do4oA3gc4cBYA Match ID: cIkyARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/21 bar/20*

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		51,59%	(Money: +0,269)
	56,3 22,8 1,0 - 43,7 9,2 0,2
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	52,13%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	3,48%
3.	Double, take	51,33%	-0,80%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (18,6%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/21 bar/20*	53,02%
			59,2 26,4 1,1 - 40,8 6,2 0,1

Move number 21: Rida Hassan to play 43

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 213, Johan Segers 148
Position ID: 4HOHAQVgHRzQRg Match ID: MAEuARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/21 8/5*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	bar/21 8/5*	48,56%
			49,2 8,9 0,2 - 50,8 26,4 1,8
	2	2	bar/21 7/4*	48,32% ( -0,24%)
			46,8 8,8 0,2 - 53,2 24,2 1,3
	3	2	bar/22 8/4*	48,11% ( -0,46%)
			46,9 8,3 0,2 - 53,1 26,8 1,8
	4	2	bar/18	48,10% ( -0,46%)
			47,1 7,8 0,2 - 52,9 26,9 1,7
	5	2	bar/21 6/3	47,80% ( -0,76%)
			47,7 7,4 0,2 - 52,3 31,3 2,9

Move number 22: Johan Segers to play 21

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 206, Johan Segers 153
Position ID: 0Boc0A3gc4cBQg Match ID: cAklARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/23 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/23 6/5*	51,74%
			53,1 25,2 1,7 - 46,9 9,3 0,3
	2	3	bar/23 21/20*	51,20% ( -0,53%)
			49,4 26,4 1,8 - 50,6 8,7 0,3
	3	2	bar/22	53,12% ( 1,38%)
			59,2 26,9 1,3 - 40,8 7,7 0,2
	4	0	bar/24 8/6	52,64% ( 0,90%)
			57,8 26,6 1,0 - 42,2 8,2 0,1
	5	0	bar/23 9/8	52,53% ( 0,79%)
			57,6 25,5 1,0 - 42,4 8,4 0,1

Annotation

At the moment, Black's own 5-point is more important than White's.

Move number 23: Rida Hassan to play 44

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 211, Johan Segers 150
Position ID: 0HOHARLQGhzgRg Match ID: MAEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/21 13/9 8/4*(2)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/21 13/9 8/4*(2)	44,39%
			34,1 8,1 0,2 - 65,9 33,5 1,8
	2	3	bar/21 13/5 8/4*	44,39% ( 0,00%)
			33,4 7,9 0,2 - 66,6 35,6 1,9
	3	2	bar/21 13/9(3)	46,38% ( 1,98%)
			40,6 7,1 0,2 - 59,4 30,9 1,9
	4	2	bar/21 13/5 7/3	46,32% ( 1,93%)
			38,5 8,2 0,2 - 61,5 27,6 1,4
	5	2	bar/21 8/4*(2) 7/3	46,23% ( 1,84%)
			39,7 8,3 0,3 - 60,3 31,0 2,2

Annotation

It is imperative for White to use the few chequers he has up front in the most efficient way: better is bar/20 13/5 8/4*, building his home-board points in strict order.

Move number 24: Johan Segers to play 32

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 195, Johan Segers 154
Position ID: WEsY4A3Qc4cBSA Match ID: cIkpARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/23 8/5

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

52,46%

(Money: +0,426)

Cubeful equities:

No double

53,55%

Double, pass

55,61%

2,05%

Double, take

53,14%

-0,41%

Proper cube action:

No double, take (16,7%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	59,2	29,7	2,7	-	40,8	7,9	0,3	52,46%	53,55%
Standard error	0,9	0,8	0,8	-	0,9	0,5	0,2	0,15%	0,39%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	59,2	30,2	2,5	-	40,8	7,3	0,4	55,31%	53,14%
Standard error	1,0	1,0	0,9	-	1,0	0,5	0,1	0,35%	0,47%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/23 8/5	53,30%
			60,1 27,2 1,5 - 39,9 9,0 0,3
	2	3	bar/20*	52,90% ( -0,41%)
			57,5 28,8 2,1 - 42,5 9,3 0,4
	3	0	bar/22 8/6	52,19% ( -1,11%)
			57,6 25,6 1,5 - 42,4 13,5 0,6
	4	0	bar/22 9/7	51,78% ( -1,52%)
			56,6 24,9 1,4 - 43,4 16,0 0,9
	5	0	bar/23 5/2	51,55% ( -1,75%)
			54,5 24,5 1,0 - 45,5 13,7 0,4

Annotation

Again, Black correctly values his own 5-point higher than White's. Black's plan is to lock White's rear chequers in behind a prime, forcing White's front army to crash against the wall--White's ace-point.

Move number 25: Rida Hassan to play 16

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 195, Johan Segers 149
Position ID: sGeHARhYSxjgDQ Match ID: MIE4ARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 21/15 7/6

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	21/15 7/6	46,96%
			41,4 8,6 0,2 - 58,6 27,5 1,8
	2	2	21/14	46,26% ( -0,70%)
			41,7 6,9 0,2 - 58,3 33,8 3,0
	3	2	21/15 6/5	46,05% ( -0,91%)
			41,1 7,2 0,2 - 58,9 34,6 3,1
	4	0	21/15 9/8	45,95% ( -1,02%)
			40,0 7,3 0,2 - 60,0 33,5 3,1
	5	0	21/15 5/4	45,64% ( -1,32%)
			37,6 7,5 0,2 - 62,4 30,8 2,2

Move number 26: Johan Segers to play 52

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 188, Johan Segers 149
Position ID: WEeYwA2wZ4cBGA Match ID: cIkqARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 23/16*

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

51,89%

(Money: +0,327)

Cubeful equities:

No double

52,49%

Double, pass

55,61%

3,12%

Double, take

51,88%

-0,61%

Proper cube action:

No double, take (16,3%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	57,1	26,2	1,2	-	42,9	8,6	0,3	51,89%	52,49%
Standard error	0,9	1,1	0,4	-	0,9	0,5	0,1	0,16%	0,43%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	57,1	26,5	0,9	-	42,9	8,6	0,4	53,95%	51,88%
Standard error	0,9	1,1	0,3	-	0,9	0,5	0,1	0,33%	0,44%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	23/16*	55,11%
			68,4 34,4 1,9 - 31,6 6,5 0,1
	2	0	23/18 9/7	52,95% ( -2,16%)
			61,5 25,3 1,4 - 38,5 11,9 0,4
	3	0	23/18 13/11	52,37% ( -2,74%)
			59,1 24,2 1,5 - 40,9 13,2 0,6
	4	0	13/11 13/8	51,84% ( -3,27%)
			56,0 22,1 1,0 - 44,0 11,0 0,3
	5	0	13/6	51,47% ( -3,64%)
			54,4 21,7 1,0 - 45,6 12,0 0,3

Annotation

The more chequers Black can trap behind his prime the better, for the sooner the remaining part of White's army will crunch.

Move number 27: Rida Hassan to play 11

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 204, Johan Segers 142
Position ID: sGeHERBYB0zgRg Match ID: MIEkARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/24 15/13 6/5

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	bar/24 15/13 6/5	47,23%
			41,2 8,3 0,2 - 58,8 24,6 1,2
	2	2	bar/23 15/14 6/5	46,83% ( -0,40%)
			41,3 7,8 0,2 - 58,7 28,9 1,7
	3	2	bar/23 15/13	46,57% ( -0,66%)
			40,9 7,2 0,2 - 59,1 30,3 2,0
	4	0	bar/22 6/5	46,29% ( -0,94%)
			39,2 7,5 0,2 - 60,8 29,8 1,6
	5	0	bar/24 15/13 4/3	45,88% ( -1,35%)
			41,6 5,7 0,1 - 58,4 36,2 3,4

Move number 28: Johan Segers to play 62

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 200, Johan Segers 142
Position ID: 2AYc4CawZ4cREA Match ID: cAkrARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 13/7 9/7

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		52,47%	(Money: +0,422)
	61,8 25,8 1,3 - 38,2 8,2 0,2
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	53,53%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	2,07%
3.	Double, take	53,41%	-0,12%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (5,5%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	13/7 9/7	54,18%
			63,5 29,2 1,7 - 36,5 8,6 0,2
	2	2	16/8	53,48% ( -0,69%)
			61,3 26,1 1,3 - 38,7 7,7 0,2
	3	2	23/17 16/14	53,00% ( -1,18%)
			60,6 24,5 1,3 - 39,4 9,5 0,3
	4	0	23/15	53,08% ( -1,10%)
			61,1 25,4 1,3 - 38,9 9,3 0,2
	5	0	9/1*	52,22% ( -1,96%)
			57,1 25,6 1,1 - 42,9 11,7 0,3

Move number 29: Rida Hassan to play 66

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 200, Johan Segers 134
Position ID: sLcNERDYBhzgJg Match ID: MAE7ARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 21/9* 21/15(2)

Alert: lucky roll! (+2,948%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	21/9* 21/15(2)	48,97%
			46,6 13,1 0,3 - 53,4 19,1 1,0
	2	0	21/9*(2)	47,90% ( -1,07%)
			41,9 11,6 0,3 - 58,1 21,2 1,1
	3	0	21/9* 13/7(2)	47,42% ( -1,55%)
			40,5 11,1 0,3 - 59,5 24,2 1,1
	4	0	21/9* 21/15 13/7	47,32% ( -1,65%)
			41,5 11,5 0,4 - 58,5 27,4 2,6
	5	0	21/15(3) 13/7	47,06% ( -1,91%)
			39,9 8,3 0,1 - 60,1 24,8 1,3

Move number 30: Johan Segers to play 14

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 176, Johan Segers 143
Position ID: 2EY4Ayawtw0BSA Match ID: cIkwARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/24 13/9

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	bar/24 13/9	51,87%
			56,3 20,8 1,1 - 43,7 10,0 0,3
	2	0	bar/24 6/2	50,14% ( -1,73%)
			49,6 18,2 1,0 - 50,4 15,4 0,7
	3	0	bar/24 9/5	48,47% ( -3,40%)
			42,4 16,0 0,9 - 57,6 19,0 1,2
	4	0	bar/24 8/4	47,29% ( -4,58%)
			38,9 13,9 0,8 - 61,1 24,2 2,2
	5	0	bar/24 5/1*	47,28% ( -4,59%)
			38,6 12,5 0,6 - 61,4 22,6 1,5

Move number 31: Rida Hassan to play 56

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 176, Johan Segers 138
Position ID: sLcdACjYRjgDJg Match ID: MIE6ARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 13/2*

Alert: very bad move (-0,926%)

Ply

Move

MWC

15/9 13/8

47,45%

41,1	10,7	0,5	-	58,9	21,3	1,9	48,29%	47,45%
0,7	0,5	0,2	-	0,7	0,7	0,5	0,12%	0,28%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

15/10 15/9

47,16% ( -0,29%)

39,7	9,5	1,4	-	60,3	20,4	0,7	48,11%	47,16%
0,6	0,5	0,8	-	0,6	0,6	0,1	0,11%	0,27%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

13/2*

46,53% ( -0,93%)

38,9	9,6	0,2	-	61,1	24,2	1,2	47,80%	46,53%
0,9	0,5	0,1	-	0,9	0,8	0,3	0,14%	0,38%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

15/4

46,85% ( -0,60%)

38,1 9,8 0,2 - 61,9 21,7 1,2

15/10 13/7

46,91% ( -0,54%)

41,1 9,4 0,2 - 58,9 29,9 3,0

Annotation

White goes for the attack. However, with 3 chequers caught behind a 5-prime, blitzing is the wrong game plan. The best way to counter a prime is by constructing a prime of your own. If it works, 15/9 13/8 will allow White to build a broken 5-prime containing one or two Black chequers.

Move number 32: Johan Segers to play 25

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 165, Johan Segers 140
Position ID: so0wAyawtx0AUA Match ID: cAk1ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/23*/18

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC		52,36%	(Money: +0,403)
	61,4 26,2 1,8 - 38,6 10,2 0,3
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	53,32%
2.	Double, pass	55,61%	2,29%
3.	Double, take	53,17%	-0,15%
Proper cube action:		No double, take (6,1%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	bar/23*/18	54,10%
			62,6 29,8 2,4 - 37,4 8,5 0,2
	2	2	bar/23* 6/1*	53,53% ( -0,57%)
			60,5 30,1 2,1 - 39,5 10,2 0,3
	3	2	bar/23* 9/4	52,63% ( -1,46%)
			57,6 26,4 2,2 - 42,4 11,4 0,4
	4	0	bar/23* 7/2	49,75% ( -4,35%)
			47,1 20,0 1,4 - 52,9 16,7 0,9

Move number 33: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 188, Johan Segers 133
Position ID: sLcdQCDYRpgBUw Match ID: MIEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/24 9/4

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/24 9/4	44,39%
			31,9 6,8 0,1 - 68,1 30,0 2,8
	2	3	bar/24 13/8	44,39% ( 0,00%)
			34,0 6,6 0,2 - 66,0 33,2 3,6
	3	2	bar/24 15/10	45,07% ( 0,67%)
			36,9 5,8 0,1 - 63,1 30,6 3,7
	4	2	bar/24 6/1*	44,39% ( 0,00%)
			33,6 4,5 0,1 - 66,4 36,0 5,3

Move number 34: Johan Segers to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 182, Johan Segers 133
Position ID: uA2YATOwtx1AIA Match ID: cIkmARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 24/18

Alert: missed double ( -0,25%)! [doubtful]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

53,34%

(Money: +0,571)

Cubeful equities:

Double, take

55,08%

Double, pass

55,61%

0,53%

No double

54,83%

-0,25%

Proper cube action:

Double, take

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	66,5	27,9	2,5	-	33,5	6,1	0,2	53,34%	54,83%
Standard error	0,8	0,6	0,1	-	0,8	0,4	0,0	0,12%	0,34%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	66,5	27,2	2,4	-	33,5	5,8	0,2	56,95%	55,08%
Standard error	1,0	0,8	0,4	-	1,0	0,4	0,1	0,32%	0,43%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	24/18	55,56%
			71,4 30,7 2,6 - 28,6 5,3 0,1
	2	2	24/23 18/13	55,02% ( -0,55%)
			67,7 28,2 2,6 - 32,3 7,7 0,2
	3	0	18/13 6/5	54,41% ( -1,15%)
			66,5 28,6 2,4 - 33,5 7,7 0,1
	4	0	18/13 9/8	54,21% ( -1,35%)
			65,7 28,3 2,4 - 34,3 8,2 0,2
	5	0	9/4 6/5	53,84% ( -1,73%)
			64,3 27,9 2,5 - 35,7 9,7 0,2

Move number 35: Rida Hassan to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 182, Johan Segers 127
Position ID: sLcdwAC4DZgBMw Match ID: MIEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 15/6

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	15/6	44,37%
			26,8 5,3 0,1 - 73,2 29,7 2,3
	2	3	13/9 13/8	44,28% ( -0,09%)
			26,5 4,9 0,1 - 73,5 32,3 2,9
	3	2	15/11 15/10	44,39% ( 0,03%)
			30,7 4,7 0,1 - 69,3 30,8 3,0
	4	2	15/10 13/9	44,37% ( 0,00%)
			31,0 3,1 0,0 - 69,0 35,4 4,9
	5	2	13/4	44,36% ( -0,01%)
			27,9 4,3 0,1 - 72,1 30,9 2,7

Move number 36: Johan Segers on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 173, Johan Segers 127
Position ID: uB0wATOwtx3AAA Match ID: cAkgARAACAAA

• Johan Segers doubles

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

53,91%

(Money: +0,666)

Cubeful equities:

Double, pass

55,61%

Double, take

57,13%

1,52%

No double

55,60%

-0,00%

Proper cube action:

Double, pass

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	71,1	27,7	2,0	-	28,9	5,2	0,1	53,91%	55,60%
Standard error	0,4	0,4	0,1	-	0,4	0,3	0,0	0,08%	0,14%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	71,9	27,3	1,6	-	28,1	4,5	0,3	58,38%	57,13%
Standard error	0,7	0,8	0,2	-	0,7	0,4	0,1	0,26%	0,31%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

I never know when to double against a back game. Here however I felt confident (although I was unsure whether I should have doubled already before): White has no timing. To see this in a simple way, just shift the Black chequers until they're all home and shift the White chequers by an equal amount of pips. By the time Black is likely to have to leave a shot, half of White's chequers are already buried on his ace-point.

Move number 37: Johan Segers doubles to 2

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 173, Johan Segers 127
Position ID: uB0wATOwtx3AAA Match ID: cBEgARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan accepts

Alert: wrong take ( -1,52%)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless MWC

53,91%

(Money: +0,666)

Cubeful equities:

Double, pass

55,61%

Double, take

57,13%

1,52%

No double

55,60%

-0,00%

Proper cube action:

Double, pass

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	71,1	27,7	2,0	-	28,9	5,2	0,1	53,91%	55,60%
Standard error	0,4	0,4	0,1	-	0,4	0,3	0,0	0,08%	0,14%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube	71,9	27,3	1,6	-	28,1	4,5	0,3	58,38%	57,13%
Standard error	0,7	0,8	0,2	-	0,7	0,4	0,1	0,26%	0,31%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868121686 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Annotation

For the reasons just described, the take can't be correct. Despite the strong reputation of the one-three backgame, here White's cause is desperate. I remember being quite happy with White's take: as some Leuven players know, I always greatly enjoy busting a backgame.

Sensitive readers, be warned: The reminder of the game contains some violent material. Only continue if you are 16 or older.

Move number 38: Johan Segers to play 61

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 173, Johan Segers 127
Position ID: uB0wATOwtx3AAA Match ID: QQknARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 18/11

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	18/11	57,15%
			72,7 27,9 1,9 - 27,3 6,2 0,1
	2	2	9/2	56,30% ( -0,85%)
			69,9 28,5 2,2 - 30,1 7,3 0,1
	3	0	8/7 8/2	54,70% ( -2,45%)
			66,2 24,7 1,9 - 33,8 7,8 0,1
	4	0	8/2 6/5	53,24% ( -3,91%)
			62,5 24,4 2,0 - 37,5 10,7 0,3
	5	0	18/17 8/2	47,40% ( -9,75%)
			49,2 19,2 1,5 - 50,8 21,4 1,0

Move number 39: Rida Hassan to play 41

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 173, Johan Segers 120
Position ID: sLedgAC4HTABMw Match ID: AQEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 15/14*/10

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	15/14*/10	42,87%
			27,4 7,0 0,1 - 72,6 28,7 2,0
	2	3	15/14* 6/2	42,77% ( -0,10%)
			28,6 6,9 0,1 - 71,4 31,6 2,8
	3	2	15/11 4/3	43,08% ( 0,21%)
			29,0 4,0 0,0 - 71,0 27,4 2,4
	4	2	15/14* 13/9	42,81% ( -0,06%)
			27,8 6,8 0,1 - 72,2 29,5 2,3
	5	2	13/9 4/3	42,68% ( -0,19%)
			30,5 3,4 0,0 - 69,5 32,4 3,8

Move number 40: Johan Segers to play 41

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 168, Johan Segers 134
Position ID: uB1iADOwtx1AQA Match ID: QQkmARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/24 18/14

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	bar/24 18/14	56,91%
			72,2 28,1 2,0 - 27,8 7,3 0,2
	2	2	bar/24 9/5	55,78% ( -1,13%)
			68,7 28,5 2,3 - 31,3 9,0 0,2
	3	0	bar/24 6/2	54,47% ( -2,43%)
			66,1 26,3 2,1 - 33,9 11,1 0,2
	4	0	bar/24 8/4	45,99% (-10,92%)
			46,7 17,7 1,3 - 53,3 25,4 1,7

Move number 41: Rida Hassan to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 168, Johan Segers 129
Position ID: sLcdBCC4HWIAMw Match ID: AYEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 10/1*

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	10/1*	41,14%
			23,0 5,3 0,1 - 77,0 30,7 2,0
	2	3	13/9 13/8	40,82% ( -0,33%)
			22,0 4,2 0,1 - 78,0 30,1 1,9
	3	2	10/5 6/2	41,36% ( 0,22%)
			23,7 4,5 0,1 - 76,3 29,8 2,1
	4	2	13/9 10/5	41,20% ( 0,06%)
			22,7 4,1 0,0 - 77,3 28,7 1,7
	5	2	13/8 10/6	40,97% ( -0,17%)
			22,4 3,9 0,0 - 77,6 29,6 1,7

Move number 42: Johan Segers to play 35

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 159, Johan Segers 130
Position ID: cTtgADOwtx0EQA Match ID: QYk1ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/17

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/17	59,22%
			79,2 28,1 1,4 - 20,8 4,3 0,1
	2	3	bar/22 14/9	59,04% ( -0,18%)
			79,2 26,3 1,0 - 20,8 3,5 0,0
	3	0	bar/22 9/4	57,54% ( -1,68%)
			74,5 29,6 1,9 - 25,5 8,9 0,2
	4	0	bar/22 7/2	46,70% (-12,52%)
			48,7 19,3 1,2 - 51,3 26,0 1,4

Move number 43: Rida Hassan to play 42

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 159, Johan Segers 122
Position ID: sLcdRABxO2AAMw Match ID: AQEqARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 13/11*/7

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	13/11*/7	39,53%
			20,0 4,6 0,1 - 80,0 35,6 2,4
	2	3	13/11* 13/9	39,44% ( -0,09%)
			19,1 4,2 0,1 - 80,9 34,1 2,2
	3	3	6/2 4/2	39,34% ( -0,19%)
			17,0 2,8 0,0 - 83,0 29,5 1,5
	4	2	24/22 6/2	39,96% ( 0,43%)
			16,9 2,5 0,0 - 83,1 24,8 0,5
	5	2	24/22 5/1	39,72% ( 0,19%)
			16,1 2,3 0,0 - 83,9 24,8 0,5

Move number 44: Johan Segers to play 64

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 153, Johan Segers 133
Position ID: cbtAADOwtx0gQA Match ID: QQkzARAACAAA

• Johan Segers cannot move

#		Ply	Move	MWC
			Cannot move

Move number 45: Rida Hassan to play 66

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 153, Johan Segers 133
Position ID: sLcdIEBxu0AAMw Match ID: AQE7ARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 13/1 7/1

Alert: unlucky roll! (-3,837%)

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	13/1 7/1	37,39%
			11,5 2,8 0,0 - 88,5 33,2 0,8

Move number 46: Johan Segers to play 31

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 135, Johan Segers 133
Position ID: x+0AADOwtx0gQA Match ID: QYklARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/22 6/5

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	bar/22 6/5	62,32%
			88,5 29,8 0,6 - 11,5 1,6 0,0
	2	3	bar/22 9/8	62,04% ( -0,28%)
			88,0 28,9 0,6 - 12,0 1,7 0,0
	3	2	bar/22 17/16	62,69% ( 0,37%)
			88,0 33,8 1,1 - 12,0 2,1 0,0
	4	0	bar/22 8/7	54,11% ( -8,21%)
			67,8 24,9 1,0 - 32,2 16,0 0,4
	5	0	bar/22 5/4	51,08% (-11,24%)
			61,9 18,6 0,5 - 38,1 21,0 0,6

Annotation

What happened up to now is quite instructive: with four chequers trapped behind Black's prime, White's attack, no matter how threatening it looked, is doomed to fail. All Black has to do is to wait until the storm is over. The key to this is Black's prime. It effectively splits White's army in two uncoordinated pieces.

Move number 47: Rida Hassan to play 52

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 135, Johan Segers 129
Position ID: cLcdIAjH7QAAMw Match ID: AYEqARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/22 6/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	2	24/22 6/1	36,96%
			9,2 0,9 0,0 - 90,8 29,9 0,3
	2	2	6/1 4/2	36,30% ( -0,67%)
			9,1 0,9 0,0 - 90,9 34,5 0,7
	3	0	6/4 6/1	35,22% ( -1,74%)
			7,8 0,7 0,0 - 92,2 39,3 1,2
	4	0	6/1 5/3*	34,38% ( -2,59%)
			7,9 1,0 0,0 - 92,1 45,8 1,9

Move number 48: Johan Segers to play 56

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 128, Johan Segers 129
Position ID: j9sAACdwtx0gCA Match ID: QYk6ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 22/16 17/12

Ply

Move

MWC

22/16 9/4

63,29%

92,0	28,8	0,5	-	8,0	0,7	0,0	63,64%	63,29%
0,4	0,9	0,2	-	0,4	0,2	0,0	0,16%	0,18%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

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Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

17/11 9/4

63,29% ( -0,01%)

90,7	31,4	0,9	-	9,3	0,8	0,0	63,71%	63,29%
0,5	1,0	0,2	-	0,5	0,2	0,0	0,22%	0,27%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

22/16 17/12

63,25% ( -0,05%)

91,8	28,3	0,9	-	8,2	0,3	0,0	63,61%	63,25%
0,5	0,8	0,4	-	0,5	0,1	0,1	0,18%	0,21%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

17/6

63,31% ( 0,01%)

89,9 34,0 0,8 - 10,1 1,4 0,0

22/11

63,16% ( -0,13%)

90,4 31,8 0,6 - 9,6 1,1 0,0

Move number 49: Rida Hassan to play 51

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 128, Johan Segers 118
Position ID: cLcdIQCP2wAAJw Match ID: AYEmARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 6/5 6/1

Ply

Move

MWC

•

6/5 6/1

36,55%

7,7	0,1	0,0	-	92,3	28,2	0,6	36,30%	36,55%
0,5	0,1	0,0	-	0,5	1,0	0,1	0,19%	0,22%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

22/21 6/1

35,70% ( -0,86%)

7,7	0,5	0,0	-	92,3	34,1	1,8	35,42%	35,70%
0,4	0,1	0,0	-	0,4	1,0	0,4	0,17%	0,19%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

24/23 6/1

36,48% ( -0,07%)

8,6 0,7 0,0 - 91,4 32,3 0,3

6/1 5/4

36,32% ( -0,24%)

8,4 0,6 0,0 - 91,6 32,9 0,3

6/1 4/3

36,19% ( -0,36%)

8,1 0,7 0,0 - 91,9 33,4 0,4

Annotation

With the ace, White would like to play 22/21, in the hope of escaping at least one prisoner. However, that would leave a blot on White's 6-point, which after an exchange of hits on Black's 4-point might end up behind Black's prime as well, thereby greatly improving Black's gammon prospects. Better to sit tight for now.

Move number 50: Johan Segers to play 32

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 122, Johan Segers 118
Position ID: H3cAACdwtx0hAA Match ID: QYkpARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 16/13 9/7

Ply

Move

MWC

9/4

63,72%

92,8	29,9	0,5	-	7,2	0,6	0,0	63,97%	63,72%
0,4	0,8	0,3	-	0,4	0,1	0,0	0,17%	0,19%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

12/7

63,43% ( -0,29%)

92,6	27,4	0,6	-	7,4	0,2	0,0	63,69%	63,43%
0,4	0,9	0,2	-	0,4	0,1	0,0	0,18%	0,20%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

16/13 9/7

63,40% ( -0,32%)

92,7	27,8	0,5	-	7,3	0,1	0,0	63,75%	63,40%
0,4	0,9	0,2	-	0,4	0,1	0,0	0,15%	0,18%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

16/13 12/10

63,59% ( -0,13%)

91,4 32,6 0,5 - 8,6 0,7 0,0

12/10 5/2

63,56% ( -0,16%)

90,9 33,9 0,6 - 9,1 1,2 0,0

Annotation

Better is to slot the 4-point with the two. Black will need that point eventually, and getting hit would not exactly be the end of the world.

Move number 51: Rida Hassan to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 122, Johan Segers 113
Position ID: cHcbBQAfdwAAJw Match ID: AYEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 5/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	5/1	37,08%
			9,5 0,6 0,0 - 90,5 29,6 0,2

Move number 52: Johan Segers to play 64

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 118, Johan Segers 113
Position ID: P24AACdwdxsFAA Match ID: QQkzARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 13/7 12/8

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	12/2	62,85%
			90,1 29,8 0,2 - 9,9 0,6 0,0
•	2	3	13/7 12/8	62,70% ( -0,15%)
			90,6 27,4 0,2 - 9,4 0,4 0,0
	3	2	13/9 12/6	64,08% ( 1,23%)
			92,5 33,8 0,5 - 7,5 0,4 0,0
	4	2	12/8 7/1*	64,06% ( 1,21%)
			92,0 34,9 0,5 - 8,0 0,7 0,0
	5	2	7/1* 5/1	63,93% ( 1,07%)
			91,7 34,7 0,4 - 8,3 0,6 0,0

Move number 53: Rida Hassan to play 43

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 118, Johan Segers 103
Position ID: cPduAAA/bgAAJw Match ID: AQEuARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 5/2 5/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	24/21 5/1	34,32%
			5,3 0,3 0,0 - 94,7 41,0 0,7
•	2	3	5/2 5/1	34,26% ( -0,05%)
			5,1 0,3 0,0 - 94,9 41,0 0,7
	3	2	5/1 4/1	35,30% ( 0,99%)
			6,6 0,3 0,0 - 93,4 36,6 0,2

Move number 54: Johan Segers to play 21

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 111, Johan Segers 103
Position ID: fzkAACdw924AAA Match ID: QQklARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 6/4 5/4

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	6/4 5/4	64,43%
			93,7 33,9 0,2 - 6,3 0,2 0,0
	2	3	7/4	64,19% ( -0,23%)
			92,7 34,4 0,2 - 7,3 0,4 0,0
	3	2	8/6 5/4	65,30% ( 0,87%)
			93,9 39,8 0,8 - 6,1 0,5 0,0
	4	2	8/7 6/4	65,09% ( 0,66%)
			93,7 38,7 0,7 - 6,3 0,5 0,0
	5	2	5/2	64,77% ( 0,34%)
			93,5 36,7 0,6 - 6,5 0,4 0,0

Move number 55: Rida Hassan to play 43

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 111, Johan Segers 100
Position ID: 2PZuAAB/OQAAJw Match ID: AQEuARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 4/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	4/1	34,64%
			5,3 0,1 0,0 - 94,7 38,8 0,3

Move number 56: Johan Segers to play 52

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 108, Johan Segers 100
Position ID: /zIAACfY9m4AAA Match ID: QYkqARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 8/6 7/2

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	8/6 7/2	65,19%
			94,3 38,6 0,1 - 5,7 0,2 0,0
	2	3	7/5 7/2	65,14% ( -0,05%)
			94,2 38,4 0,1 - 5,8 0,2 0,0
	3	2	8/1*	66,74% ( 1,55%)
			96,5 45,0 0,8 - 3,5 0,1 0,0
	4	2	9/4 8/6	66,21% ( 1,02%)
			94,7 44,3 1,6 - 5,3 0,3 0,0
	5	2	9/4 7/5	66,21% ( 1,01%)
			94,7 44,1 1,5 - 5,3 0,3 0,0

Annotation

Black is in no hurry to break his prime.

Move number 57: Rida Hassan to play 44

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 108, Johan Segers 93
Position ID: st1tAAD/MgAAJw Match ID: AQEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan cannot move

#		Ply	Move	MWC
			Cannot move

Move number 58: Johan Segers to play 42

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 108, Johan Segers 93
Position ID: /zIAACey3W0AAA Match ID: QQkqARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 7/5 6/2

Ply

Move

MWC

•

7/5 6/2

65,92%

95,5	39,7	1,1	-	4,5	0,1	0,0	66,04%	65,92%
0,4	1,1	0,3	-	0,4	0,2	0,0	0,20%	0,20%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

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Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

7/1*

65,59% ( -0,33%)

94,4	39,8	1,1	-	5,6	0,2	0,0	65,79%	65,59%
0,4	1,2	0,3	-	0,4	0,1	0,3	0,21%	0,22%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

8/2

66,68% ( 0,77%)

95,7 45,8 1,3 - 4,3 0,2 0,0

9/5 7/5

66,55% ( 0,63%)

95,2 45,8 1,6 - 4,8 0,3 0,0

9/5 6/4

66,54% ( 0,62%)

95,2 45,6 1,5 - 4,8 0,3 0,0

Move number 59: Rida Hassan to play 43

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 108, Johan Segers 87
Position ID: ZrdtAAD/MgAAJw Match ID: AQEuARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 4/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	4/1	33,66%
			3,7 0,1 0,0 - 96,3 43,0 0,1

Annotation

At this point I almost felt like I was torturing my poor opponent. I cannot say I disliked it.

Move number 60: Johan Segers to play 53

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 105, Johan Segers 87
Position ID: /yUAACdmt20AAA Match ID: QYkuARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 9/6 9/4

Alert: bad move (-1,133%)

Ply

Move

MWC

9/1*

67,49%

95,8	49,2	2,9	-	4,2	0,0	0,0	67,61%	67,49%
0,4	1,3	0,6	-	0,4	0,6	0,1	0,22%	0,21%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

•

9/6 9/4

66,36% ( -1,13%)

96,6	40,9	1,3	-	3,4	0,1	0,0	66,47%	66,36%
0,3	1,1	0,3	-	0,3	0,0	0,0	0,17%	0,17%

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice

Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

9/4 8/5

67,48% ( -0,01%)

96,0 50,3 2,1 - 4,0 0,1 0,0

9/4 5/2

67,34% ( -0,15%)

96,1 49,2 1,9 - 3,9 0,1 0,0

9/4 7/4

67,33% ( -0,16%)

95,9 49,6 2,1 - 4,1 0,2 0,0

Annotation

Wouldn't it be wonderful to pick up those two White blots in White's home board as well? Black should of course hit with 9/1*, in the hope of getting hit back.

Move number 61: Rida Hassan to play 42

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 105, Johan Segers 79
Position ID: 5u42AAD/JQAAJw Match ID: AQEqARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/22

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	0	24/22	35,98%
			6,1 0,0 0,0 - 93,9 30,2 0,0
	2	0	4/2	34,07% ( -1,91%)
			4,1 0,2 0,0 - 95,9 40,6 0,2

Move number 62: Johan Segers to play 32

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 103, Johan Segers 79
Position ID: /yUAAA/m7jYAAA Match ID: QYkpARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 8/6 8/5

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	8/6 8/5	64,12%
			95,7 27,1 0,1 - 4,3 0,0 0,0
	2	3	7/5 4/1	64,05% ( -0,07%)
			93,6 31,2 0,0 - 6,4 0,1 0,0
	3	3	8/6 7/4	63,79% ( -0,33%)
			93,1 30,5 0,0 - 6,9 0,2 0,0
	4	2	7/4 6/4	65,06% ( 0,94%)
			95,4 34,5 0,6 - 4,6 0,0 0,0
	5	2	7/2	65,04% ( 0,92%)
			95,5 34,0 0,6 - 4,5 0,0 0,0

Move number 63: Rida Hassan to play 63

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 103, Johan Segers 74
Position ID: 5t4bAAD/JQAADw Match ID: AQEvARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 22/13

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	22/13	36,10%
			3,2 0,0 0,0 - 96,8 23,0 0,2
	2	3	22/16 4/1	35,56% ( -0,54%)
			2,7 0,0 0,0 - 97,3 26,0 0,2

Move number 64: Johan Segers to play 42

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 94, Johan Segers 74
Position ID: /yWAAA7m3hsAAA Match ID: QQkqARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 6/4 5/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	3	7/1	62,91%
			95,3 18,7 0,1 - 4,7 0,0 0,0
	2	3	7/5 6/2	62,76% ( -0,15%)
			95,0 18,2 0,1 - 5,0 0,0 0,0
•	3	3	6/4 5/1	62,66% ( -0,25%)
			95,7 16,0 0,0 - 4,3 0,0 0,0
	4	2	6/4 6/2	62,81% ( -0,10%)
			95,9 16,6 0,1 - 4,1 0,0 0,0
	5	2	5/1 4/2	62,59% ( -0,32%)
			95,4 15,9 0,1 - 4,6 0,0 0,0

Move number 65: Rida Hassan to play 54

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 94, Johan Segers 68
Position ID: zbsbAAD/JYAADg Match ID: AYEyARAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 22/17 13/9

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	22/17 13/9	37,21%
			3,1 0,0 0,0 - 96,9 14,2 0,1
	2	3	22/13	37,03% ( -0,18%)
			2,8 0,0 0,0 - 97,2 14,8 0,1
	3	2	13/4	37,41% ( 0,20%)
			4,8 0,0 0,0 - 95,2 16,5 0,0

Move number 66: Johan Segers to play 65

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 85, Johan Segers 68
Position ID: /yUIEAzNuxsAAA Match ID: QQk3ARAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 7/2 7/1

#		Ply	Move	MWC
•	1	3	7/2 7/1	62,90%
			97,8 13,3 0,0 - 2,2 0,0 0,0
	2	3	7/1 6/1	62,32% ( -0,58%)
			96,4 11,7 0,0 - 3,6 0,0 0,0

Move number 67: Rida Hassan to play 62