Game number 2

The score (after 1 game) is: Rida Hassan 0, Johan Segers 1 (match to 9 points)

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Match Information

Datejanuari 04, 2009
Event5th Backgammon Masters
Round8
PlaceAntwerp, Belgium
AnnotatorJohan Segers
CommentThe 2009 Masters tournament took place in Antwerp on 3 - 4 January. The tournament format was 9 rounds Swiss, with matches being played to 9 points and timed with electronic clocks (Bronstein system, 15 minutes for the match plus 15 seconds per move).

The following analysis is performed with the help of GNU Backgammon at 3-ply search depth, setting "grandmaster". In cases of doubt, roll-outs have been done.

Move number 1: Johan Segers to play 41

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '5O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 1       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O ' ' '5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 167, Johan Segers 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAgmAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 24/23 13/9

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 3 24/23 13/9 55,32%
  49,1 14,1 0,5 - 50,9 13,8 0,5  
  2 3 24/23 24/20 55,14% ( -0,18%)
  48,6 12,4 0,5 - 51,4 13,7 0,5  
  3 2 13/9 6/5 55,44% ( 0,12%)
  50,1 14,4 0,6 - 49,9 14,5 0,8  
  4 2 13/8 55,40% ( 0,08%)
  49,7 13,8 0,6 - 50,3 14,0 0,5  
  5 2 24/20 6/5 55,31% ( -0,01%)
  49,7 12,9 0,6 - 50,3 14,1 0,6  

Annotation
Nowadays I often play an opening 41 by 13/9 6/5, a move which according to recent rollouts is slightly inferior to 24/23 13/9, but which tends to lead to much more dynamic games.

Move number 2: Rida Hassan to play 41

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O1O ' ' '5X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       4 1       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O1O ' '5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 167, Johan Segers 162
Position ID: 4HPhASjgc/ABMA Match ID: MAEmAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 6/2*/1*

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 6/2*/1* 44,04%
  47,8 13,5 0,5 - 52,2 15,3 0,7  
  2 2 24/23 13/9 43,65% ( -0,39%)
  46,3 12,6 0,4 - 53,7 16,5 0,6  
  3 2 24/23 24/20 43,63% ( -0,41%)
  46,7 10,9 0,4 - 53,3 15,9 0,5  
  4 2 24/23 6/2* 43,59% ( -0,45%)
  46,0 12,0 0,4 - 54,0 16,0 0,7  
  5 2 13/8 43,55% ( -0,49%)
  45,9 11,9 0,4 - 54,1 16,6 0,6  

Annotation
Again according to the rollouts, this double hit is best.

Move number 3: Johan Segers to play 22

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X ' ' ' '4X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 2       |
|2X ' ' ' '5O|   | '3O1O ' '5X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 162, Johan Segers 165
Position ID: wXPwATDgc+EBYA Match ID: cAkpAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/23(2) 6/4(2)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 bar/23(2) 6/4(2) 57,72%
  59,6 20,3 0,8 - 40,4 10,3 0,3  
  2 2 bar/21(2) 57,13% ( -0,59%)
  57,0 16,2 0,6 - 43,0 9,0 0,2  
  3 2 bar/23(2) 13/9 56,82% ( -0,90%)
  55,6 17,7 0,7 - 44,4 11,4 0,3  
  4 0 bar/23(2) 13/11(2) 56,52% ( -1,20%)
  54,2 17,9 1,0 - 45,8 12,5 0,4  
  5 0 bar/21 bar/23 13/11 56,36% ( -1,37%)
  54,2 16,4 1,0 - 45,8 13,5 0,5  

Move number 4: Rida Hassan to play 64

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X2O ' ' '4X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       6 4       | 1 |                 |
|2X ' '2O '3O|   | '3O1O ' '5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 162, Johan Segers 157
Position ID: mHPhARjBc/ABMA Match ID: MAEzAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/14

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 24/14 41,91%
  39,8 9,0 0,3 - 60,2 21,0 0,7  
  2 2 24/18 13/9 41,54% ( -0,37%)
  38,2 9,9 0,4 - 61,8 23,7 1,1  
  3 2 24/20 13/7 41,30% ( -0,60%)
  37,0 9,9 0,4 - 63,0 25,0 1,4  
  4 2 13/9 13/7 40,72% ( -1,18%)
  34,8 9,5 0,3 - 65,2 23,9 2,0  
  5 0 13/3 41,23% ( -0,68%)
  35,9 9,7 0,4 - 64,1 22,7 1,7  

Move number 5: Johan Segers to play 43

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X2O ' ' '4X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 3       |
|1X ' '2O '3O|   | '3O1O '1X5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 152, Johan Segers 157
Position ID: wXPwBSCYc+EBGA Match ID: cAkuAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 9/5 8/5

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC 57,72%(Money: +0,388)
  62,3 22,1 0,8 - 37,7 8,6 0,2
Cubeful equities:
1.No double 58,62% 
2.Double, pass 60,99% 2,38%
3.Double, take 58,30% -0,31%
Proper cube action:No double, take (11,6%)

 

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 9/5 8/5 58,51%
  61,6 23,2 0,7 - 38,4 8,3 0,3  
  2 2 23/20 13/9 57,77% ( -0,73%)
  59,9 18,0 0,6 - 40,1 9,2 0,2  
  3 2 13/10 13/9 57,66% ( -0,85%)
  58,6 20,4 0,5 - 41,4 9,0 0,3  
  4 0 13/9 8/5 57,25% ( -1,26%)
  57,0 19,6 0,6 - 43,0 10,1 0,3  
  5 0 13/10 9/5 56,80% ( -1,71%)
  54,6 18,7 0,5 - 45,4 10,2 0,3  

Move number 6: Rida Hassan to play 31

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X2O ' ' '4X|   | '3X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 1       | 1 |                 |
|1X ' '2O2O3O|   | '2O ' '1X5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 152, Johan Segers 150
Position ID: 2M7gARjBc/AFIA Match ID: MIElAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 8/5 6/5

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 8/5 6/5 41,69%
  39,5 10,0 0,4 - 60,5 24,5 0,9  
  2 2 14/10 41,01% ( -0,68%)
  36,3 8,6 0,3 - 63,7 25,2 0,8  
  3 0 24/23 14/11 40,58% ( -1,11%)
  35,9 8,0 0,3 - 64,1 27,4 0,8  
  4 0 13/9 39,40% ( -2,29%)
  32,9 7,9 0,3 - 67,1 29,9 1,4  
  5 0 14/11 8/7 39,37% ( -2,32%)
  32,8 7,5 0,2 - 67,2 29,4 1,5  

Move number 7: Johan Segers to play 53

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X2O ' '2X3X|   | '2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 3       |
|1X ' '2O2O3O|   | '2O ' '1X5X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 148, Johan Segers 150
Position ID: YWfwBSDYzuABGA Match ID: cIkuAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 8/3 6/3

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC 57,99%(Money: +0,433)
  63,1 26,2 1,0 - 36,9 9,7 0,4
Cubeful equities:
1.No double 58,86% 
2.Double, pass 60,99% 2,13%
3.Double, take 58,82% -0,05%
Proper cube action:No double, take (2,2%)

 

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 8/3 6/3 58,19%
  60,1 25,0 0,7 - 39,9 9,8 0,4  
  2 2 23/18 13/10 57,88% ( -0,30%)
  60,4 20,6 0,8 - 39,6 11,5 0,4  
  3 2 13/10 6/1* 57,70% ( -0,48%)
  57,2 25,0 0,8 - 42,8 12,1 0,5  
  4 2 13/5 57,51% ( -0,68%)
  57,2 23,7 0,6 - 42,8 10,3 0,4  
  5 2 13/10 13/8 57,43% ( -0,75%)
  57,4 21,8 0,6 - 42,6 10,3 0,4  

Annotation
Black doesn't mind leaving a blot on his 8-point, for if White hits, Black will have many direct and indirect return shots.

Move number 8: Rida Hassan to play 54

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X2O ' '2X3X|   | '2X ' ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       5 4       | 1 |                 |
|1X '2O2O2O2O|   | '1O ' '1X5X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 148, Johan Segers 142
Position ID: bJvgARhhZ/AFIA Match ID: MIEyAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 14/9 13/9

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 14/9 13/9 42,99%
  44,6 10,8 0,5 - 55,4 21,1 0,5  
  2 0 14/10 13/8 42,11% ( -0,88%)
  40,7 10,3 0,4 - 59,3 24,0 0,7  
  3 0 14/5 42,10% ( -0,89%)
  40,5 10,2 0,4 - 59,5 23,5 0,6  
  4 0 14/10 6/1 41,77% ( -1,22%)
  39,1 9,9 0,3 - 60,9 24,4 0,9  
  5 0 13/9 6/1 40,61% ( -2,38%)
  36,1 9,7 0,3 - 63,9 29,4 1,4  

Move number 9: Johan Segers to play 42

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X2O ' '2X3X|   | '2X2X ' '4O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 2       |
|1X '2O2O2O2O|   | '1O ' ' '4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 139, Johan Segers 142
Position ID: YWfDAyBsm+ABGA Match ID: cAkqAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 13/9 8/6

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC 57,10%(Money: +0,276)
  58,2 22,4 0,6 - 41,8 11,2 0,5
Cubeful equities:
1.No double 57,59% 
2.Double, pass 60,99% 3,41%
3.Double, take 56,78% -0,81%
Proper cube action:No double, take (19,1%)

 

Alert: doubtful move (-0,396%)

# Ply Move MWC
  1 3 13/11 13/9 56,85%
  54,3 21,1 0,5 - 45,7 11,8 0,6  
  2 3 13/7 56,65% ( -0,20%)
  53,6 20,3 0,5 - 46,4 12,1 0,6  
• 3 3 13/9 8/6 56,45% ( -0,40%)
  51,9 21,0 0,4 - 48,1 11,3 0,6  
  4 3 13/11 8/4 56,43% ( -0,42%)
  52,1 21,4 0,5 - 47,9 12,5 0,6  
  5 3 23/21 13/9 56,18% ( -0,67%)
  52,4 19,4 0,7 - 47,6 14,4 0,7  

Annotation
Now I much prefer 13/7, slotting the bar-point. Black really wants to prevent White's remaining back chequer to escape. If White hits (13 out of 36 rolls), Black won't like it, but he'll still have some attractive return shots to look forward to.

Move number 10: Rida Hassan to play 64

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X2O ' '2X3X|   | '2X2X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       6 4       | 1 |                 |
|1X '2O2O2O3O|   | ' '1O ' '4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 139, Johan Segers 136
Position ID: bDvCARhhZ8MDIA Match ID: MAEzAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 24/14

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 24/14 44,75%
  54,3 7,8 0,4 - 45,7 15,3 0,2  
  2 0 24/18 13/9 42,66% ( -2,09%)
  44,4 9,4 0,6 - 55,6 24,6 0,2  
  3 0 13/9 13/7 41,52% ( -3,23%)
  39,1 10,8 0,5 - 60,9 29,3 1,1  
  4 0 24/18 9/5 40,90% ( -3,85%)
  38,2 9,5 0,7 - 61,8 33,2 0,6  
  5 0 13/3 40,77% ( -3,98%)
  36,9 10,4 0,6 - 63,1 31,6 0,9  

Move number 11: Johan Segers to play 52

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X2O ' '2X3X|   | '2X2X ' '3O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| ' '2O2O2O3O|   | ' '1O '1X4X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 129, Johan Segers 136
Position ID: YWfDCwBsO8IBGA Match ID: cIkqAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 23/18 13/11*

Alert: very lucky roll! (+4,703%)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 23/18 13/11* 60,51%
  70,2 35,3 0,8 - 29,8 8,2 0,5  
  2 0 13/11* 13/8 59,49% ( -1,02%)
  64,6 34,8 0,5 - 35,4 9,4 0,6  
  3 0 13/11* 9/4 59,42% ( -1,09%)
  63,7 35,3 0,7 - 36,3 9,0 0,4  
  4 0 13/11*/6 59,36% ( -1,15%)
  63,5 34,6 0,7 - 36,5 8,8 0,4  
  5 0 13/11* 6/1 57,71% ( -2,80%)
  57,3 29,0 0,5 - 42,7 12,1 0,8  

Annotation
After hitting, Black seizes the opportunity to connect his own back chequers with the rest of his army.

Move number 12: Rida Hassan to play 24

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X1O ' '2X3X|   |1O2X2X ' '2O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 4       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O2O2O3O|   | ' '1O '1O4X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 140, Johan Segers 129
Position ID: bDuSQRBhZ8MDQA Match ID: MAExAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/23 13/9

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 bar/23 13/9 41,30%
  37,7 9,9 0,6 - 62,3 28,4 0,5  
  2 0 bar/23 6/2* 39,03% ( -2,27%)
  33,3 9,6 0,5 - 66,7 36,8 1,4  
  3 0 bar/23 9/5 39,01% ( -2,30%)
  29,6 8,9 0,5 - 70,4 40,8 1,3  
  4 0 bar/23 5/1 39,01% ( -2,30%)
  27,8 7,8 0,3 - 72,2 41,5 1,6  
  5 0 bar/23 8/4 37,89% ( -3,41%)
  22,7 6,6 0,3 - 77,3 53,3 3,2  

Move number 13: Johan Segers to play 43

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X1O ' '2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       4 3       |
| '1X2O2O2O3O|   | ' '1O '1O3X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 134, Johan Segers 129
Position ID: YWeHAxBsO5JBEA Match ID: cAkuAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 11/8 6/2*

Alert: missed double ( -0,02%)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 57,95%(Money: +0,430)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 58,67% 
2.Double, pass 60,99% 2,32%
3.No double 58,65% -0,02%
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube 62,5 27,6 0,6- 37,5 9,8 0,3 57,95% 58,65%
Standard error 0,4 0,6 0,1- 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,08% 0,19%
Player Rida Hassan owns 2-cube 62,8 26,9 0,6- 37,2 9,9 0,5 60,63% 58,67%
Standard error 0,5 0,6 0,1- 0,5 0,3 0,3 0,17% 0,24%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

 

# Ply Move MWC
  1 3 18/15 6/2* 58,46%
  61,9 30,6 0,7 - 38,1 12,2 0,8  
  2 3 9/2* 58,45% ( -0,01%)
  62,4 32,8 0,8 - 37,6 12,5 0,7  
• 3 3 11/8 6/2* 58,31% ( -0,15%)
  62,3 31,9 0,8 - 37,7 13,4 1,0  
  4 3 18/11 58,11% ( -0,36%)
  59,1 24,0 0,5 - 40,9 9,9 0,4  
  5 3 13/10 6/2* 57,61% ( -0,85%)
  59,1 31,1 1,0 - 40,9 17,3 3,1  

Annotation
According to the roll-outs, Black missed a double here, albeit a marginal one.

White's board being weak still, hitting with the four is clear. The question is what to do with the three.

Move number 14: Rida Hassan to play 26

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1X1O ' '2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 6       | 1 |                 |
| '1O2O2O2O2O|   | '1O1O ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 136, Johan Segers 122
Position ID: 2jaFQRBhZ4cDQA Match ID: MAE5AQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/23*/17*

Alert: very lucky roll! (+5,816%)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 bar/23*/17* 47,78%
  63,0 26,5 2,8 - 37,0 12,7 0,4  
  2 2 bar/23* 13/7* 46,35% ( -1,43%)
  57,0 26,5 2,8 - 43,0 19,2 1,0  
  3 0 bar/23* 8/2* 43,81% ( -3,97%)
  46,2 25,7 3,3 - 53,8 30,0 2,2  
  4 0 bar/23* 9/3 42,51% ( -5,27%)
  42,0 16,1 1,4 - 58,0 28,1 1,0  

Move number 15: Johan Segers to play 14

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1X1O ' '2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       1 4       |
| ' '2O2O2O2O|   | '1X1O ' '3X|
|                   | 2O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 128, Johan Segers 162
Position ID: YWeHQwBsG2EQZA Match ID: cIkwAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/24* bar/21

Alert: very lucky roll! (+4,328%)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 bar/24* bar/21 57,00%
  54,6 25,8 1,0 - 45,4 13,2 0,9  

Move number 16: Rida Hassan to play 21

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O1O '1O2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   | 1X|                   |
|       2 1       | 1 |                 |
| ' '2O2O2O2O|   | '1X1O ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 152, Johan Segers 157
Position ID: bBthECmws8MhQA Match ID: MAElAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves bar/23 17/16*

Alert: very lucky roll! (+4,170%)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 bar/23 17/16* 47,00%
  61,5 19,9 1,4 - 38,5 12,8 0,3  
  2 0 bar/24 9/7* 43,61% ( -3,39%)
  48,0 15,9 1,1 - 52,0 26,0 1,4  
  3 0 bar/23 9/8 43,58% ( -3,42%)
  48,1 13,4 0,9 - 51,9 24,1 0,7  
  4 0 bar/24 17/15 43,42% ( -3,58%)
  46,8 12,7 0,7 - 53,2 22,1 0,7  
  5 0 bar/23 6/5 43,34% ( -3,66%)
  47,2 13,1 0,9 - 52,8 25,1 0,8  

Move number 17: Johan Segers to play 21

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O1O '1O2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       2 1       |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | ' '1X ' '3X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 149, Johan Segers 173
Position ID: sLPDERBsGzCIVA Match ID: cAklAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/24 23/21

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 bar/24 23/21 53,04%
  38,9 11,7 0,4 - 61,1 18,5 1,0  
  2 2 bar/22 52,34% ( -0,69%)
  37,9 12,1 0,5 - 62,1 25,2 2,5  
  3 0 bar/23 24/23 50,03% ( -3,01%)
  31,5 9,5 0,4 - 68,5 28,7 1,9  
  4 0 bar/23 3/2* 50,00% ( -3,04%)
  32,1 9,3 0,3 - 67,9 33,5 4,0  
  5 0 bar/24 4/2* 50,00% ( -3,04%)
  31,2 8,6 0,3 - 68,8 35,6 6,3  

Move number 18: Rida Hassan to play 33

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2O ' '2O2X3X|   |1O2X3X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 3       | 1 |                 |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | ' '1X ' '3X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 149, Johan Segers 170
Position ID: bBswiDGws8MREA Match ID: MIEtAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 13/7*(2)

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless MWC 46,37%(Money: +0,344)
  62,6 19,8 1,1 - 37,4 11,4 0,4
Cubeful equities:
1.No double 47,30% 
2.Double, pass 50,00% 2,70%
3.Double, take 47,11% -0,19%
Proper cube action:No double, take (6,7%)

 

Alert: lucky roll! (+1,987%)

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 0 13/7*(2) 49,42%
  70,5 28,8 2,0 - 29,5 7,1 0,2  
  2 0 16/10 13/10 9/6 47,54% ( -1,88%)
  63,3 21,1 1,3 - 36,7 10,2 0,3  
  3 0 16/13 9/3 6/3 47,15% ( -2,27%)
  61,7 20,6 1,3 - 38,3 11,5 0,3  
  4 0 13/7* 13/10(2) 47,13% ( -2,29%)
  60,8 24,0 1,6 - 39,2 13,6 0,6  
  5 0 16/7* 13/10 46,91% ( -2,51%)
  60,0 23,3 1,6 - 40,0 14,1 0,7  

Move number 19: Johan Segers to play 52

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O ' '2O2X3X|   |2X2X3X ' '2O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 2       |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | ' '1X ' '1X|
|                   | 1O|                   |
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 137, Johan Segers 177
Position ID: sNsOERBsGzDAWA Match ID: cIkqAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves bar/23 13/8

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 3 bar/23 13/8 49,40%
  21,8 3,8 0,1 - 78,2 37,6 2,6  
  2 3 bar/23 6/1 49,20% ( -0,20%)
  19,4 3,2 0,1 - 80,6 38,0 3,3  

Move number 20: Rida Hassan to play 32

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|2O1O '2O2X3X|   |2X2X3X ' '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|       3 2       | 1 |                 |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | '1O1X ' '1X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 137, Johan Segers 170
Position ID: bJsgwDSw2w4REA Match ID: MIEpAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan moves 16/13 9/7

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 49,11%(Money: +0,831)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double 50,40% 
2.Double, take 53,20% 2,79%
3.Double, pass 50,00% -0,40%
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (12,7%)
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube 75,5 33,8 2,6- 24,5 4,2 0,1 49,11% 50,40%
Standard error 0,5 0,6 0,3- 0,5 0,2 0,0 0,08% 0,11%
Player Johan Segers owns 2-cube 76,4 32,8 2,7- 23,6 3,2 1,0 54,30% 53,20%
Standard error 1,0 0,9 0,3- 1,0 0,4 0,7 0,34% 0,38%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

 

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 2 16/13 9/7 50,11%
  75,2 30,3 1,9 - 24,8 5,1 0,1  
  2 2 13/8 49,73% ( -0,38%)
  71,6 29,1 1,9 - 28,4 7,3 0,2  
  3 2 16/11 49,49% ( -0,61%)
  72,0 28,8 1,8 - 28,0 7,9 0,2  
  4 2 16/14 13/10 48,58% ( -1,53%)
  68,5 26,9 1,7 - 31,5 10,4 0,4  
  5 0 13/10 9/7 48,83% ( -1,28%)
  67,8 27,8 2,0 - 32,2 9,7 0,3  

Annotation
After a fortunate exchange of hits, White's position is suddenly too good too double. The best Black can hope for is a crunched backgame.

Move number 21: Johan Segers to play 53

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|2O1O '2O2X3X|   |3X2X2X ' '1O|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |       5 3       |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | '1O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 132, Johan Segers 170
Position ID: sLsNAxBsmyDANA Match ID: cIkuAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers moves 24/21 13/8

# Ply Move MWC
• 1 3 24/21 13/8 50,00%
  25,1 5,0 0,1 - 74,9 24,8 0,9  
  2 3 13/10 8/3 49,62% ( -0,38%)
  19,7 3,5 0,1 - 80,3 29,7 1,7  
  3 2 24/21 8/3 49,78% ( -0,22%)
  21,9 4,2 0,1 - 78,1 29,9 1,1  
  4 2 13/5 49,72% ( -0,28%)
  21,8 3,9 0,1 - 78,2 30,0 1,9  
  5 2 13/8 6/3 49,56% ( -0,44%)
  20,6 3,3 0,0 - 79,4 32,9 2,0  

Annotation
If I want to survive, it is mandatory I free some back chequers, for if not, my front position will collapse within the next few rolls.

Move number 22: Rida Hassan on roll, cube decision?

+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+
|1O1O '3O2X3X|   |3X2X2X ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|                 | 1 |                 |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | '2O ' ' '2X|
+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 132, Johan Segers 162
Position ID: bJsBwCmwuw0DEA Match ID: MAEgAQAACAAA

• Rida Hassan doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 48,27%(Money: +0,679)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass 50,00% 
2.Double, take 51,42% 1,42%
3.No double 49,59% -0,41%
Proper cube action:Double, pass
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube 74,8 23,1 0,6- 25,2 5,2 0,1 48,27% 49,59%
Standard error 0,4 0,3 0,1- 0,4 0,3 0,0 0,06% 0,16%
Player Johan Segers owns 2-cube 75,3 23,1 0,7- 24,7 4,5 0,2 52,47% 51,42%
Standard error 0,7 0,7 0,1- 0,7 0,4 0,0 0,21% 0,26%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

 


Annotation
Black's chances have somewhat improved, as he has completed a 5-prime of his own and has brought a chequer in position to leap over White's prime. Time for White to cash. If he doesn't roll a 5 in the next few rolls, his prime will break. In view of his highly disconnected position, Black cannot take. Unless he rolls a miracle double six, his fancy-looking prime will shatter into pieces in the next few rolls.

Move number 23: Rida Hassan doubles to 2

+-24-23-22-21-20-19-+---+-18-17-16-15-14-13-+
|1O1O '3O2X3X|   |3X2X2X ' ' '|
|                   |   |                   |
|       [2]       |   |                 |
| '1X2O2O2O2O|   | '2O ' ' '2X|
+--1--2--3--4--5--6-+---+--7--8--9-10-11-12-+

Pip counts: Rida Hassan 132, Johan Segers 162
Position ID: bJsBwCmwuw0DEA Match ID: MBkgAQAACAAA

• Johan Segers rejects

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 48,27%(Money: +0,679)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass 50,00% 
2.Double, take 51,42% 1,42%
3.No double 49,59% -0,41%
Proper cube action:Double, pass
Rollout details
 WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube 74,8 23,1 0,6- 25,2 5,2 0,1 48,27% 49,59%
Standard error 0,4 0,3 0,1- 0,4 0,3 0,0 0,06% 0,16%
Player Johan Segers owns 2-cube 75,3 23,1 0,7- 24,7 4,5 0,2 52,47% 51,42%
Standard error 0,7 0,7 0,1- 0,7 0,4 0,0 0,21% 0,26%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867997887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

 


Annotation

Rida Hassan wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 2
PlayerRida HassanJohan Segers
Checker play statistics
Total moves 10 11
Unforced moves 10 10
Unmarked moves 10 10
Moves marked doubtful 0 1
Moves marked bad 0 0
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error total EMG (MWC) +0,000 ( +0,000%) -0,099 ( -0,543%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) +0,0 ( +0,000%) -9,9 ( -0,054%)
Chequerplay rating Supernatural Advanced
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky 2 2
Rolls marked lucky 1 0
Rolls unmarked 7 9
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck total EMG (MWC) +2,322 (+12,764%) +1,351 ( +7,429%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC) +232,2 ( +1,276%) +122,9 ( +0,675%)
Luck rating Go to Las Vegas Go to Las Vegas
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions 11 11
Close or actual cube decisions 3 5
Doubles 1 0
Takes 0 0
Passes 0 1
Missed doubles below CP (EMG (MWC)) 0 1 (-0,004 ( -0,022%))
Missed doubles above CP (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong doubles below DP (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong doubles above TG (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong takes (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong passes (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Error total EMG (MWC) +0,000 ( +0,000%) -0,004 ( -0,022%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) +0,0 ( +0,000%) -0,8 ( -0,004%)
Cube decision rating Supernatural Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error total EMG (MWC) +0,000 ( +0,000%) -0,103 ( -0,565%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) +0,0 ( +0,000%) -6,9 ( -0,038%)
Snowie error rate +0,0 ( +0,000%) -4,9 ( +0,000%)
Overall rating Supernatural Expert
Actual result +5,49% -5,49%
Luck adjusted result +0,16% -0,16%
Luck based FIBS rating diff. +1,83
Error based abs. FIBS rating 2050,0 1934,3
Chequerplay errors rating loss 0,0 115,0
Cube errors rating loss 0,0 0,6

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